December is traditionally a quieter month for the housing market, and 2024 was no exception. Nationwide, the sales count fell 27.4% compared to November 2024 but edged up by 1.8% year-on-year. Adjusting for seasonal effects, these movements were lower than expected, confirming that December was particularly subdued.
Property sales volumes have been on a gently rising trend for around 18 months now, but they remain below normal and haven’t made much of a dent in the flow of new listings coming onto the market each week. As such, the stock of available listings remains elevated, giving buyers the power of choice.
REINZ data shows the national median property price saw a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, settling at $775,000. Month-on-month, the median price dipped 1.8% from $789,000. However, excluding Auckland, the median price rose by $10,000 (1.4%) from $700,000 to $710,000.
Regional variations were evident, with 11 out of 16 regions posting median price increases. The West Coast led the gains with a 24.3% surge from $346,000 to $430,000, followed by Nelson, where the median price rose 10.6% from $710,000 to $785,000.
"Sales numbers have increased year-on-year, but we saw a more pronounced seasonal slowdown in December, largely influenced by the timing of the holidays with the country effectively shutting down on the 19th. Many buyers delayed their activity until the new year, anticipating potential interest rate reductions. Our agents have had a large number of listings go to market over the first weeks of 2025. With ample stock on the market, buyers are in no rush. However, we are seeing a strong start to the year, with big turnouts to our open homes," says Shaun Taylor, CEO of Professionals Real Estate New Zealand.
According to CoreLogic, roughly three years on from the post-COVID peak, property values in Wellington (across City, Upper & Lower Hutt, and Porirua) are still down by 25%, with Auckland having dropped by 22%. Christchurch is down by around 7%. Shaun continues, “Prices are very stable as we head into 2025, but we are forecasting values to lift as investors and educated buyers re-enter the market, realising how good it is right now.”
Overall inventory levels climbed by 18.5% year-on-year to 29,478, but stock on the market declined 13.3% month-on-month from 33,984 in November. The dip in new listings reflects the expected seasonal slowdown, yet the broader market still has more properties available compared to the same time last year.
CoreLogic reports that residential property sales volumes remain below normal levels for the time of year (about 10% below average), while listings on the market are still high. Buyers with finance are taking their time and being selective while they can.
"While new listings took a typical holiday dip, total inventory remains elevated, giving buyers more choices. This dynamic has created favourable conditions for those in the market to purchase, with less competition and more room for negotiation. This is typical of the 'calm before the storm'—economic conditions are almost perfect for buyers, and if history tells us anything, these conditions don’t normally last too long," adds Shaun.
Inflation Under Control: Inflation is stabilising, bringing confidence back to both buyers and lenders. With economic uncertainty easing, purchasing power is improving, making it a great time to buy before prices start climbing again.
Mortgage Rates Are at Their Lowest in Years: Mortgage rates have reached their lowest levels in years, with further drops expected following the next OCR announcement. While many banks have already priced in these reductions, buyers can still take advantage of historically low borrowing costs to secure favourable home loan terms as banks get competitive for business.
Inventory Is High, Offering Buyers More Choice: With more properties on the market than in previous years, buyers have a wealth of options to choose from. High inventory levels mean less competition, allowing purchasers to take their time and negotiate better deals.
Days on the Market Are High but Expected to Decrease: Properties are taking longer to sell, giving buyers more leverage in negotiations. However, based on historical trends, days on the market will likely shorten in the coming months, meaning now is the best time to enter the market before demand picks up.
Great Time to Buy as We Head into a New Growth Cycle
With all factors aligning—low mortgage rates, stabilising inflation, high inventory, and extended days on the market—buyers are in a strong position to purchase before the market enters its next growth phase. As confidence returns and demand rises, prices are expected to climb, making early 2025 an opportune time to invest in property.
For those considering buying or selling in the coming months, now is the time to start planning. Reach out to your local Professionals Real Estate Agent for expert guidance and insights on navigating the market in 2025.