The latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand confirms we are operating in a more balanced environment. This is a market that rewards informed decision-making, realistic expectations, and a long-term view.

Nationally, the median price in February increased 3.2% year-on-year to $795,000. The three month trend shows a more moderate lift of 1.9% to $780,000, reinforcing what Professionals Sales teams are seeing on the ground, gradual recovery rather than rapid growth. Sales activity remains consistent, with 6,523 transactions nationally, up just 0.3% year-on-year.

Regional Momentum Building
While national trends remain measured, several regions are showing encouraging momentum:

• Christchurch City reached a record median price of $735,000
• Otago led the country with a 13.2% increase, reaching $755,000
• Auckland, Canterbury, and Waikato recorded their strongest February sales volumes since 2021

At the same time, days to sell remain elevated at 56 days across New Zealand, and inventory levels have increased modestly. This reinforces a consistent theme in today’s market: buyers have choice, and sellers must meet the market.

As Chief Executive Officer, Shaun Taylor, notes, “2026 has had a steady start. In a stable market, motivated sellers will achieve results when they listen to advice from their salespeople. Homes that are selling well consistently are brought to market by vendors who understand the importance of presentation and investing in marketing.”

Global Factors: What the Middle East Conflict Could Mean
Emerging conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty into global markets, primarily through oil prices and inflation expectations. While it is still early days, here are four potential short-term impacts on the New Zealand property market over the coming months,  and importantly, why the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

1. A Short-Term Confidence Pause
Periods of global uncertainty can cause buyers to pause, but typically only in the short term. We may see fewer multi-offer situations and days on market may increase as buyers take longer to make decisions.

However, property decisions in New Zealand continue to be driven primarily by local fundamentals such as employment, migration, and interest rates. Confidence may soften temporarily, but it does not disappear and once the conflict is resolved we will see demand increase as certainty returns.

2. Interest Rate Cuts are Done
Rising oil prices can influence inflation expectations, which in turn may impact monetary policy. Heading into the April OCR review by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:

• The most likely outcome is a hold at 2.25%
• The likelihood of further rate cuts in the near term has reduced
• Home Loan interest rates are at the lowest they will be for a number of years

While banks may adjust mortgage rates based on risk, the broader outlook remains relatively stable. Most economists believe the OCR is at its lowest point and the conflict removes any further chance there will be a reduction.

3. Cost-of-Living Pressures Maintain Discipline
Higher fuel and transport costs will place additional pressure on household budgets. In practice, this reinforces existing behaviour: buyers remain selective and price-conscious, and sellers need to align with current market expectation.

This environment does not prevent transactions. Instead, it supports more considered and well-informed decisions.

4. Strong Fundamentals Support Gradual Growth
Despite global uncertainty, the underlying drivers of New Zealand’s housing market remain intact:

• Ongoing population growth and migration
• Gradually increasing sales volumes
• Stable interest rate environment
• Strengthening activity across key regions

As seen in Canterbury and Otago, momentum is already building. While global events may influence short-term sentiment, they do not alter the long-term fundamentals of housing demand in New Zealand.

The Bottom Line
February’s data reinforces a clear position: New Zealand’s housing market is stable, measured, and gradually improving. Global uncertainty may create short-term hesitation, however, the fundamentals remain strong.

For buyers, this is a period of opportunity, increased choice, and reduced pressure. For sellers, success comes from realistic pricing, strong presentation, and strategic marketing. As Shaun says, "The New Zealand property market always carries on, despite political and geopolitical unrest. There are thousands of transactions across the country every month, and we are in an unprecedented period of stability. House values are starting to move in the right direction, but much more slowly than in previous periods, so sellers can feel confident in that stability. They can be confident that the price they achieve in this market is unlikely to leave them worse off in the coming months, while also giving them the opportunity to buy in a market with plenty of choice."

For the Professionals network, this is where expertise matters most. In a balanced market, trusted advice, local knowledge, and strong relationships are what ultimately drive results.